A slow-moving low-pressure system over the Tasman Sea directs a moist northeast flow over the country during the outlook period. A front embedded in this flow moves onto northern New Zealand on Sunday, then moves slowly southeastwards. This front is forecast to bring strong to gale force northeasterlies and rain to many regions of New Zealand.
For northwest Tasman, there is moderate confidence rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria at some stage on Sunday, Monday or Tuesday.
For Mount Taranaki, there is moderate confidence of heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday.
For Northland, there is low confidence of warnable amounts of rain on Sunday and Monday.
For Auckland, there is low confidence of both heavy rain and severe east to northeast gales on Monday and Tuesday, especially about northern parts of the region.
Finally, for Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne, there is moderate confidence rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria from Monday to Wednesday.